**Clear skies and a stable high-pressure system have kept Madrid's temperatures on September 11 within a narrow range consistent with late-summer norms.** Official station readings and forecast model consensus converged on a daily maximum of 32°C, well above the 1991–2020 average high of 27.5°C but short of historical extremes like the 34.3°C record from 1939. With the day nearing its end and no significant diurnal spike observed, market-implied odds reflect this strong alignment between real-time meteorological data and trader assessments. Minor upward revisions in final official tallies or localized measurement differences remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution.