No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS records showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines during June. Global averages indicate roughly one M8+ event annually and about 15 in the 7.0–7.9 range, often along subduction zones like the Ring of Fire. Recent activity remains moderate, with September’s strongest at 6.5 and no signs of clustering that typically precedes great events. Traders’ strong preference for 7.9 or below reflects the year-to-date gap and limited time remaining, though an M8+ remains possible if a major fault segment ruptures before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 7.6%
8.6 – 8.7 4.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
75%
8.0 – 8.1
12%
8.2 – 8.3
8%
8.4 – 8.5
2%
8.6 – 8.7
4%
8.8 – 8.9
1%
9.0 or above
3%
7.9 or below 75%
8.0 – 8.1 12%
8.2 – 8.3 7.6%
8.6 – 8.7 4.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 3, 2027
7.9 or below
$2,485 Wol.
75%
8.0 – 8.1
$562 Wol.
12%
8.2 – 8.3
$782 Wol.
8%
8.4 – 8.5
$206 Wol.
2%
8.6 – 8.7
$311 Wol.
4%
8.8 – 8.9
$208 Wol.
1%
9.0 or above
$166 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS records showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines during June. Global averages indicate roughly one M8+ event annually and about 15 in the 7.0–7.9 range, often along subduction zones like the Ring of Fire. Recent activity remains moderate, with September’s strongest at 6.5 and no signs of clustering that typically precedes great events. Traders’ strong preference for 7.9 or below reflects the year-to-date gap and limited time remaining, though an M8+ remains possible if a major fault segment ruptures before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,720Data zakończenia
Jan 4, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS records showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines during June. Global averages indicate roughly one M8+ event annually and about 15 in the 7.0–7.9 range, often along subduction zones like the Ring of Fire. Recent activity remains moderate, with September’s strongest at 6.5 and no signs of clustering that typically precedes great events. Traders’ strong preference for 7.9 or below reflects the year-to-date gap and limited time remaining, though an M8+ remains possible if a major fault segment ruptures before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's timeframe is below 8.0, including the magnitude 7.8 already recorded in 2026 and any lower value.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Magnitude is measured to one decimal place (e.g., 7.9). The USGS preferred magnitude at the end of this market's open period governs; later revisions do not reopen or change this market's resolution.
An extension period extends this market's close from January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET to as late as January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, and applies when a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but the USGS has not yet published or finalized its preferred magnitude. This additional time allows the reported magnitude to be finalized before this market resolves.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET, or until January 7, 2027, 11:59:59 PM ET if the extension period applies. If a qualifying earthquake has occurred within this market's timeframe but has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of that period, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$4,720Data zakończenia
Jan 4, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 10:53 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred worldwide in 2026 through mid-September, with USGS records showing a maximum of 7.8 in the Philippines during June. Global averages indicate roughly one M8+ event annually and about 15 in the 7.0–7.9 range, often along subduction zones like the Ring of Fire. Recent activity remains moderate, with September’s strongest at 6.5 and no signs of clustering that typically precedes great events. Traders’ strong preference for 7.9 or below reflects the year-to-date gap and limited time remaining, though an M8+ remains possible if a major fault segment ruptures before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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