Raphaël Glucksmann holds a commanding lead in the ongoing French Socialist primary first round, driven by consistent polling advantages of 10-12% in presidential vote intentions compared to single-digit figures for rivals, alongside endorsements from key Socialist parliamentary leaders and his Place publique base. The two-round electronic vote among roughly 140,000 registered participants, extended through October 11 after a cyberattack, tests his push for a social-democratic refoundation that explicitly distances the left from La France insoumise. Challengers including Olivier Faure, Ségolène Royal, Jérôme Guedj, and Emmanuel Maurel trail significantly in surveys, though Faure retains some party loyalty appeal and Royal has injected campaign energy through debates. A first-round win would require overcoming any last-minute mobilization around incumbency or personal networks, while a runoff could introduce greater uncertainty if turnout or preference flows shift unexpectedly.