Republican structural advantages in Florida, including a consistent GOP edge in statewide contests since 1999 and a registration advantage exceeding 1.5 million voters, underpin trader consensus favoring Byron Donalds over David Jolly. Donalds secured the Republican nomination in the August primary with endorsements from President Trump and Governor DeSantis, while amassing over $134 million in fundraising compared to Jolly’s roughly $17 million. Recent Mason-Dixon polling shows Donalds ahead 48-41 among likely voters, though other surveys indicate a closer contest with notable independent support for Jolly. Key issues such as affordability and insurance costs remain central, with early voting scheduled to begin October 24 ahead of the November 3 election.