**Flávio Bolsonaro did not participate in any televised presidential debate ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round election.** Multiple scheduled events, including those organized by Band, Record, and a media consortium, were canceled after both leading candidates—incumbent President Lula and PL nominee Flávio Bolsonaro—declined to attend. The final pre-election debate hosted by TV Globo on October 1 was scrapped hours before airtime following court rulings from the TSE and STF that altered participation rules and lineup, prompting Flávio to withdraw in protest over what he called judicial interference. With the first-round vote now underway and no further debate opportunities remaining under electoral calendar constraints, traders assign near-certain probability to “No.” Late developments such as an unexpected last-minute broadcast or rule change could theoretically alter the outcome, though none have materialized within the resolution window.