Trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 40.5% to win the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, driven by her strong first-quarter 2026 fundraising haul of $541,000—bringing totals to nearly $975,000 with $390,000 cash on hand—and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, positioning her as a leading MAGA-aligned challenger in this crowded field of 13 candidates. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel holds 23.4% with superior cash reserves of $1.47 million from $1.73 million raised, leveraging Southwest Florida roots amid voter preference for district ties over out-of-state entrants. Madison Cawthorn and Jim Oberweis share 11.2% despite the latter's $3 million war chest, weighed down by non-local backgrounds—former North Carolina and Illinois politicians, respectively—and past electoral setbacks. No public polls exist; odds reflect post-filing deadline (April 24) assessments of fundraising momentum and name recognition in this Solid Republican seat.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCatalina Lauf 40%
Jim Schwartzel 23.5%
Jim Oberweis 11.1%
Madison Cawthorn 11.1%
$22,773 Wol.
$22,773 Wol.
Catalina Lauf
21%
Jim Schwartzel
24%
Jim Oberweis
11%
Madison Cawthorn
11%
Spencer Roach
7%
Bob Rommel
3%
Catalina Lauf 40%
Jim Schwartzel 23.5%
Jim Oberweis 11.1%
Madison Cawthorn 11.1%
$22,773 Wol.
$22,773 Wol.
Catalina Lauf
21%
Jim Schwartzel
24%
Jim Oberweis
11%
Madison Cawthorn
11%
Spencer Roach
7%
Bob Rommel
3%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 25, 2025, 6:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Catalina Lauf at 40.5% to win the open Republican primary for Florida's 19th Congressional District on August 18, driven by her strong first-quarter 2026 fundraising haul of $541,000—bringing totals to nearly $975,000 with $390,000 cash on hand—and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, positioning her as a leading MAGA-aligned challenger in this crowded field of 13 candidates. Local businessman Jim Schwartzel holds 23.4% with superior cash reserves of $1.47 million from $1.73 million raised, leveraging Southwest Florida roots amid voter preference for district ties over out-of-state entrants. Madison Cawthorn and Jim Oberweis share 11.2% despite the latter's $3 million war chest, weighed down by non-local backgrounds—former North Carolina and Illinois politicians, respectively—and past electoral setbacks. No public polls exist; odds reflect post-filing deadline (April 24) assessments of fundraising momentum and name recognition in this Solid Republican seat.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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