Warmer-than-average September temperatures across much of the U.S., driven by a strengthening El Niño pattern, currently anchor trader sentiment for the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more per National Weather Service criteria) of the 2026-27 season. NOAA and climatological analyses indicate elevated odds of delayed onset relative to 1981-2010 normals, with median first-snow dates for Midwest and Northeast cities falling in November. Key variables include steering patterns from persistent ridges, lake-effect potential near the Great Lakes, and any early cold-air intrusions. Traders monitor upcoming NWS extended forecasts, updated ENSO outlooks, and regional temperature anomalies, as shifts in model consensus could accelerate or further postpone accumulation in cities like Chicago or Detroit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
54%

Boston, MA by November 15
60%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
62%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
82%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
32%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
80%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
18%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$7,387 Wol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
55%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
59%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
54%

Boston, MA by November 15
60%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
62%

Denver, CO by November 15
94%

Detroit, MI by November 15
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
82%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
32%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
52%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
80%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
90%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
84%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
18%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
89%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Warmer-than-average September temperatures across much of the U.S., driven by a strengthening El Niño pattern, currently anchor trader sentiment for the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more per National Weather Service criteria) of the 2026-27 season. NOAA and climatological analyses indicate elevated odds of delayed onset relative to 1981-2010 normals, with median first-snow dates for Midwest and Northeast cities falling in November. Key variables include steering patterns from persistent ridges, lake-effect potential near the Great Lakes, and any early cold-air intrusions. Traders monitor upcoming NWS extended forecasts, updated ENSO outlooks, and regional temperature anomalies, as shifts in model consensus could accelerate or further postpone accumulation in cities like Chicago or Detroit.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano

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