**Republican nominee John Cowan holds a projected 59.9% share against Democrat Chris Harden in Georgia’s 11th congressional district, aligning directly with the market’s 59.9% “Yes” price for an outright first-round victory above 50%.** The solidly Republican district carries an R+12 Partisan Voter Index and favored Donald Trump by 18.5 points in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican following Loudermilk’s retirement and the June 2026 GOP runoff, where Cowan defeated Rob Adkerson 65-35%. A September poll showed Harden at 40% and Cowan at 42% with undecideds, while models incorporating fundamentals and limited polling project Cowan near 60%. Minor independent candidates further fragment the remaining vote, supporting the trader consensus around a narrow majority without triggering Georgia’s December runoff.