**Republican congressional priorities and the compressed legislative calendar have kept broad federal capital gains rate reductions off the enacted agenda through September 2026.** The 2025 reconciliation measure extended TCJA provisions and introduced targeted relief such as no tax on tips and overtime, yet left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation or raise the primary-residence exclusion have surfaced in White House discussions and received some Republican support, but face procedural and fiscal hurdles with midterms weeks away. Lawmakers have signaled possible lame-duck action after November, yet the window for passage before year-end remains narrow amid competing spending and election-related demands. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability that no statutory cut will take effect by December 31, 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFederal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
Federal capital gains taxes be cut by 2026?
12% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
12% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican congressional priorities and the compressed legislative calendar have kept broad federal capital gains rate reductions off the enacted agenda through September 2026.** The 2025 reconciliation measure extended TCJA provisions and introduced targeted relief such as no tax on tips and overtime, yet left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation or raise the primary-residence exclusion have surfaced in White House discussions and received some Republican support, but face procedural and fiscal hurdles with midterms weeks away. Lawmakers have signaled possible lame-duck action after November, yet the window for passage before year-end remains narrow amid competing spending and election-related demands. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability that no statutory cut will take effect by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Wolumen
$296Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Republican congressional priorities and the compressed legislative calendar have kept broad federal capital gains rate reductions off the enacted agenda through September 2026.** The 2025 reconciliation measure extended TCJA provisions and introduced targeted relief such as no tax on tips and overtime, yet left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation or raise the primary-residence exclusion have surfaced in White House discussions and received some Republican support, but face procedural and fiscal hurdles with midterms weeks away. Lawmakers have signaled possible lame-duck action after November, yet the window for passage before year-end remains narrow amid competing spending and election-related demands. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability that no statutory cut will take effect by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$296Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...**Republican congressional priorities and the compressed legislative calendar have kept broad federal capital gains rate reductions off the enacted agenda through September 2026.** The 2025 reconciliation measure extended TCJA provisions and introduced targeted relief such as no tax on tips and overtime, yet left long-term capital gains rates unchanged at 0/15/20 percent. Proposals to index gains for inflation or raise the primary-residence exclusion have surfaced in White House discussions and received some Republican support, but face procedural and fiscal hurdles with midterms weeks away. Lawmakers have signaled possible lame-duck action after November, yet the window for passage before year-end remains narrow amid competing spending and election-related demands. Traders therefore assign an 88.5 percent probability that no statutory cut will take effect by December 31, 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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