Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, has shifted trader expectations toward a hawkish policy stance for the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% (9-3 vote) aligned with market-implied odds, but subsequent dot-plot projections and economist surveys now favor steady rates or hikes through year-end rather than cuts. With the effective rate near 3.63% as of early September and core PCE readings remaining elevated, the 63.5% probability on “Other” reflects the scope for at least one 25-basis-point increase, while the 33.5% on three consecutive pauses captures the baseline hold scenario. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$746,564 Wol.
$746,564 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
64%
Other 64%
Pause–Pause–Pause 34%
Pause–Pause–Cut 1.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$746,564 Wol.
$746,564 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$249,780 Wol.
34%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$62,432 Wol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$43,175 Wol.
<1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$28,302 Wol.
<1%
Other
$319,386 Wol.
64%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, has shifted trader expectations toward a hawkish policy stance for the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% (9-3 vote) aligned with market-implied odds, but subsequent dot-plot projections and economist surveys now favor steady rates or hikes through year-end rather than cuts. With the effective rate near 3.63% as of early September and core PCE readings remaining elevated, the 63.5% probability on “Other” reflects the scope for at least one 25-basis-point increase, while the 33.5% on three consecutive pauses captures the baseline hold scenario. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$746,564Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, has shifted trader expectations toward a hawkish policy stance for the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% (9-3 vote) aligned with market-implied odds, but subsequent dot-plot projections and economist surveys now favor steady rates or hikes through year-end rather than cuts. With the effective rate near 3.63% as of early September and core PCE readings remaining elevated, the 63.5% probability on “Other” reflects the scope for at least one 25-basis-point increase, while the 33.5% on three consecutive pauses captures the baseline hold scenario. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$746,564Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside elevated energy prices from Middle East developments, has shifted trader expectations toward a hawkish policy stance for the September and October 2026 FOMC meetings. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% (9-3 vote) aligned with market-implied odds, but subsequent dot-plot projections and economist surveys now favor steady rates or hikes through year-end rather than cuts. With the effective rate near 3.63% as of early September and core PCE readings remaining elevated, the 63.5% probability on “Other” reflects the scope for at least one 25-basis-point increase, while the 33.5% on three consecutive pauses captures the baseline hold scenario. The September 15-16 meeting, which includes updated economic projections, stands as the key near-term catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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