The European Central Bank’s April 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent amid energy-price shocks from Middle East tensions has lifted staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to 2.6 percent, prompting money markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This backdrop supports the 57 percent implied probability of no change at the July 22–23 meeting, as traders weigh the central bank’s data-dependent stance and warnings of second-round effects against still-weak euro-area growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Recent Governing Council communications have reinforced vigilance without pre-commitment, while futures embed a narrower 42 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase if incoming CPI and core readings sustain upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10–11 meeting and fresh inflation releases that could shift the balance toward tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: July 2026
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change 57%
25 bps Increase 49%
50+ bps decrease 3.1%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
57%
25 bps Increase
44%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps Increase 49%
50+ bps decrease 3.1%
25 bps decrease 3.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$179 Wol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$95 Wol.
3%
No change
$67 Wol.
57%
25 bps Increase
$72 Wol.
44%
50+ bps increase
$161 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The European Central Bank’s April 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent amid energy-price shocks from Middle East tensions has lifted staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to 2.6 percent, prompting money markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This backdrop supports the 57 percent implied probability of no change at the July 22–23 meeting, as traders weigh the central bank’s data-dependent stance and warnings of second-round effects against still-weak euro-area growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Recent Governing Council communications have reinforced vigilance without pre-commitment, while futures embed a narrower 42 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase if incoming CPI and core readings sustain upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10–11 meeting and fresh inflation releases that could shift the balance toward tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$574Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The European Central Bank’s April 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent amid energy-price shocks from Middle East tensions has lifted staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to 2.6 percent, prompting money markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This backdrop supports the 57 percent implied probability of no change at the July 22–23 meeting, as traders weigh the central bank’s data-dependent stance and warnings of second-round effects against still-weak euro-area growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Recent Governing Council communications have reinforced vigilance without pre-commitment, while futures embed a narrower 42 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase if incoming CPI and core readings sustain upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10–11 meeting and fresh inflation releases that could shift the balance toward tightening.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Wolumen
$574Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The European Central Bank’s April 2026 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent amid energy-price shocks from Middle East tensions has lifted staff projections for 2026 headline inflation to 2.6 percent, prompting money markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year. This backdrop supports the 57 percent implied probability of no change at the July 22–23 meeting, as traders weigh the central bank’s data-dependent stance and warnings of second-round effects against still-weak euro-area growth forecasts near 0.9 percent. Recent Governing Council communications have reinforced vigilance without pre-commitment, while futures embed a narrower 42 percent chance of a 25-basis-point increase if incoming CPI and core readings sustain upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10–11 meeting and fresh inflation releases that could shift the balance toward tightening.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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