Recent eurozone inflation readings above 3%, driven primarily by energy price surges amid Middle East conflicts, have prompted the ECB to deliver two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, with the deposit rate now at 2.50%. Policymaker accounts and a Reuters poll of economists point to a likely pause in October followed by another increase in December, as underlying trends remain elevated and fiscal support is expected to fade. Resilient growth and stable long-term inflation expectations have supported trader consensus around measured further tightening, while downside scenarios for larger moves or cuts remain limited by the absence of clear disinflation signals within the resolution window.