The European Central Bank's Governing Council announced on April 30, 2026, that it would keep its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility rate at 2% and main refinancing operations rate—prompting traders to price no change at 100% implied probability. This decision reflects March Eurozone inflation rising to 2.6% annually from 1.9% in February, balanced against sluggish growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict, and calls from President Lagarde for more data amid uncertainty. Prior meetings in March and February also held steady. With the official outcome confirmed, realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare data revisions or resolution disputes over exact rate definitions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoStopy procentowe EBC: kwiecień 2026 r.
Brak zmian 100.0%
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb <1%
Obniżka o 25 pb <1%
Podwyżka <1%
$1,054,199 Wol.
$1,054,199 Wol.
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb
Nie
Obniżka o 25 pb
Nie
Brak zmian
Tak
Podwyżka
Nie
Brak zmian 100.0%
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb <1%
Obniżka o 25 pb <1%
Podwyżka <1%
$1,054,199 Wol.
$1,054,199 Wol.
Obniżka o ponad 50 pb
Nie
Obniżka o 25 pb
Nie
Brak zmian
Tak
Podwyżka
Nie
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: Nie
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Nie
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: Nie
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Nie
The European Central Bank's Governing Council announced on April 30, 2026, that it would keep its three key interest rates unchanged—including the deposit facility rate at 2% and main refinancing operations rate—prompting traders to price no change at 100% implied probability. This decision reflects March Eurozone inflation rising to 2.6% annually from 1.9% in February, balanced against sluggish growth forecasts of 0.9% for 2026, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict, and calls from President Lagarde for more data amid uncertainty. Prior meetings in March and February also held steady. With the official outcome confirmed, realistic challenges are minimal but could include rare data revisions or resolution disputes over exact rate definitions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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