The Clacton by-election, scheduled for 13 August 2026 following Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000 and a record 34 candidates on the ballot. Trader consensus centers on 20,000–30,000 votes cast, reflecting expectations of subdued participation typical of summer by-elections held during peak holiday periods, compounded by the absence of major party campaigns and characterizations of the contest as low-stakes. Historical general election turnout in the constituency has hovered near 58 percent, yet by-election dynamics and August timing have historically depressed participation well below that level. The extended ballot paper and presence of high-profile novelty candidates add procedural complexity without materially boosting mobilization. Markets assign lower probability to ranges above 30,000, consistent with these structural and seasonal headwinds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano20k-30k 76%
30k-40k 13%
10k-20k 6.7%
40k-50k 2.4%
$40,514 Wol.
$40,514 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
<10k
<1%
10k-20k
7%
20k-30k
76%
30k-40k
13%
40k-50k
2%
50k-60k
1%
60k+
<1%
20k-30k 76%
30k-40k 13%
10k-20k 6.7%
40k-50k 2.4%
$40,514 Wol.
$40,514 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
<10k
$1,077 Wol.
<1%
10k-20k
$14,528 Wol.
7%
20k-30k
$7,333 Wol.
76%
30k-40k
$10,759 Wol.
13%
40k-50k
$4,655 Wol.
2%
50k-60k
$1,003 Wol.
1%
60k+
$1,159 Wol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).The Clacton by-election, scheduled for 13 August 2026 following Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000 and a record 34 candidates on the ballot. Trader consensus centers on 20,000–30,000 votes cast, reflecting expectations of subdued participation typical of summer by-elections held during peak holiday periods, compounded by the absence of major party campaigns and characterizations of the contest as low-stakes. Historical general election turnout in the constituency has hovered near 58 percent, yet by-election dynamics and August timing have historically depressed participation well below that level. The extended ballot paper and presence of high-profile novelty candidates add procedural complexity without materially boosting mobilization. Markets assign lower probability to ranges above 30,000, consistent with these structural and seasonal headwinds.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$40,514Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).The Clacton by-election, scheduled for 13 August 2026 following Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000 and a record 34 candidates on the ballot. Trader consensus centers on 20,000–30,000 votes cast, reflecting expectations of subdued participation typical of summer by-elections held during peak holiday periods, compounded by the absence of major party campaigns and characterizations of the contest as low-stakes. Historical general election turnout in the constituency has hovered near 58 percent, yet by-election dynamics and August timing have historically depressed participation well below that level. The extended ballot paper and presence of high-profile novelty candidates add procedural complexity without materially boosting mobilization. Markets assign lower probability to ranges above 30,000, consistent with these structural and seasonal headwinds.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Wolumen
$40,514Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Clacton by-election, scheduled for 13 August 2026 following Nigel Farage’s resignation to re-contest the seat, features an electorate of roughly 78,000 and a record 34 candidates on the ballot. Trader consensus centers on 20,000–30,000 votes cast, reflecting expectations of subdued participation typical of summer by-elections held during peak holiday periods, compounded by the absence of major party campaigns and characterizations of the contest as low-stakes. Historical general election turnout in the constituency has hovered near 58 percent, yet by-election dynamics and August timing have historically depressed participation well below that level. The extended ballot paper and presence of high-profile novelty candidates add procedural complexity without materially boosting mobilization. Markets assign lower probability to ranges above 30,000, consistent with these structural and seasonal headwinds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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