Farage triggered the Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat in early July 2026 amid scrutiny over personal and party finances, seeking to secure a fresh mandate from voters. Major parties boycotted the contest, leaving him opposed primarily by novelty candidate Count Binface and dozens of independents, which has shaped a low-competition environment. A recent Survation poll placed Farage at 73% support, aligning with trader consensus favoring 60-80% ranges as the most probable outcomes. Uncertainty around turnout, protest voting, and the impact of the boycott keeps adjacent bands closely matched in the market, while any late shifts in local sentiment or unexpected mobilization among opponents could widen separation in final tallies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFarage 70–80% 42.6%
Farage 60–70% 37%
Farage 80%+ 18%
Farage 50–60% 4.5%
$162,745 Wol.
$162,745 Wol.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
1%
Farage 40–50%
2%
Farage 50–60%
5%
Farage 60–70%
37%
Farage 70–80%
43%
Farage 80%+
18%
Farage 70–80% 42.6%
Farage 60–70% 37%
Farage 80%+ 18%
Farage 50–60% 4.5%
$162,745 Wol.
$162,745 Wol.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$15,300 Wol.
1%
Farage 40–50%
$17,143 Wol.
2%
Farage 50–60%
$19,414 Wol.
5%
Farage 60–70%
$28,241 Wol.
37%
Farage 70–80%
$43,342 Wol.
43%
Farage 80%+
$39,306 Wol.
18%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage triggered the Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat in early July 2026 amid scrutiny over personal and party finances, seeking to secure a fresh mandate from voters. Major parties boycotted the contest, leaving him opposed primarily by novelty candidate Count Binface and dozens of independents, which has shaped a low-competition environment. A recent Survation poll placed Farage at 73% support, aligning with trader consensus favoring 60-80% ranges as the most probable outcomes. Uncertainty around turnout, protest voting, and the impact of the boycott keeps adjacent bands closely matched in the market, while any late shifts in local sentiment or unexpected mobilization among opponents could widen separation in final tallies.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Wolumen
$162,745Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Farage triggered the Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat in early July 2026 amid scrutiny over personal and party finances, seeking to secure a fresh mandate from voters. Major parties boycotted the contest, leaving him opposed primarily by novelty candidate Count Binface and dozens of independents, which has shaped a low-competition environment. A recent Survation poll placed Farage at 73% support, aligning with trader consensus favoring 60-80% ranges as the most probable outcomes. Uncertainty around turnout, protest voting, and the impact of the boycott keeps adjacent bands closely matched in the market, while any late shifts in local sentiment or unexpected mobilization among opponents could widen separation in final tallies.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Wolumen
$162,745Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Farage triggered the Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat in early July 2026 amid scrutiny over personal and party finances, seeking to secure a fresh mandate from voters. Major parties boycotted the contest, leaving him opposed primarily by novelty candidate Count Binface and dozens of independents, which has shaped a low-competition environment. A recent Survation poll placed Farage at 73% support, aligning with trader consensus favoring 60-80% ranges as the most probable outcomes. Uncertainty around turnout, protest voting, and the impact of the boycott keeps adjacent bands closely matched in the market, while any late shifts in local sentiment or unexpected mobilization among opponents could widen separation in final tallies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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