SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, established the core driver behind elevated trader odds for an upper-stage chopsticks catch. The Ship 40 upper stage achieved a precise, soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean after deploying Starlink satellites and demonstrating an in-space Raptor relight, with landing accuracy precise enough that Elon Musk stated a tower catch would have succeeded had infrastructure been present. This built directly on multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches using the Mechazilla arms. Subsequent updates shifted the timeline from an immediate Flight 14 attempt to within a few months, citing ongoing tower modifications like shortened chopsticks and actuator upgrades plus pending FAA approvals for orbital trajectories and over-land catch zones. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14's orbital profile and any regulatory clearances that would enable the first non-suborbital ship recovery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
8%
October 31, 2026
46%
$1,968 Wol.
September 30, 2026
$74 Wol.
8%
October 31, 2026
$12 Wol.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, established the core driver behind elevated trader odds for an upper-stage chopsticks catch. The Ship 40 upper stage achieved a precise, soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean after deploying Starlink satellites and demonstrating an in-space Raptor relight, with landing accuracy precise enough that Elon Musk stated a tower catch would have succeeded had infrastructure been present. This built directly on multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches using the Mechazilla arms. Subsequent updates shifted the timeline from an immediate Flight 14 attempt to within a few months, citing ongoing tower modifications like shortened chopsticks and actuator upgrades plus pending FAA approvals for orbital trajectories and over-land catch zones. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14's orbital profile and any regulatory clearances that would enable the first non-suborbital ship recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,968Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, established the core driver behind elevated trader odds for an upper-stage chopsticks catch. The Ship 40 upper stage achieved a precise, soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean after deploying Starlink satellites and demonstrating an in-space Raptor relight, with landing accuracy precise enough that Elon Musk stated a tower catch would have succeeded had infrastructure been present. This built directly on multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches using the Mechazilla arms. Subsequent updates shifted the timeline from an immediate Flight 14 attempt to within a few months, citing ongoing tower modifications like shortened chopsticks and actuator upgrades plus pending FAA approvals for orbital trajectories and over-land catch zones. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14's orbital profile and any regulatory clearances that would enable the first non-suborbital ship recovery.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Wolumen
$1,968Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success on July 24, 2026, established the core driver behind elevated trader odds for an upper-stage chopsticks catch. The Ship 40 upper stage achieved a precise, soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean after deploying Starlink satellites and demonstrating an in-space Raptor relight, with landing accuracy precise enough that Elon Musk stated a tower catch would have succeeded had infrastructure been present. This built directly on multiple prior Super Heavy booster catches using the Mechazilla arms. Subsequent updates shifted the timeline from an immediate Flight 14 attempt to within a few months, citing ongoing tower modifications like shortened chopsticks and actuator upgrades plus pending FAA approvals for orbital trajectories and over-land catch zones. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 14's orbital profile and any regulatory clearances that would enable the first non-suborbital ship recovery.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania