Recent H1 2026 GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3%, reflects softening domestic demand and persistent property weakness offset by resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech investment. Analyst consensus for full-year 2026 centers on 4.4–4.7%, aligning with the government’s 4.5–5% target and positioning the 4.3–4.9% bands as the dominant market-implied outcomes at a combined 89.5% probability. Low inflation, July PMI readings near 51, and expectations of potential reserve-requirement or policy-rate easing in coming months reinforce trader focus on these ranges, while downside risks from consumption shortfalls and external trade frictions keep lower outcomes priced modestly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 35%
4.0-4.3% 5.9%
4.9-5.2% 4.2%
$17,613 Wol.
$17,613 Wol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
4%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
6%
4.3-4.6%
55%
4.6-4.9%
35%
4.9-5.2%
4%
5.2-5.5%
2%
5.5%+
2%
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 35%
4.0-4.3% 5.9%
4.9-5.2% 4.2%
$17,613 Wol.
$17,613 Wol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$638 Wol.
4%
3.4-3.7%
$390 Wol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$433 Wol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,074 Wol.
6%
4.3-4.6%
$4,633 Wol.
55%
4.6-4.9%
$7,197 Wol.
35%
4.9-5.2%
$2,166 Wol.
4%
5.2-5.5%
$390 Wol.
2%
5.5%+
$691 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent H1 2026 GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3%, reflects softening domestic demand and persistent property weakness offset by resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech investment. Analyst consensus for full-year 2026 centers on 4.4–4.7%, aligning with the government’s 4.5–5% target and positioning the 4.3–4.9% bands as the dominant market-implied outcomes at a combined 89.5% probability. Low inflation, July PMI readings near 51, and expectations of potential reserve-requirement or policy-rate easing in coming months reinforce trader focus on these ranges, while downside risks from consumption shortfalls and external trade frictions keep lower outcomes priced modestly.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,613Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent H1 2026 GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3%, reflects softening domestic demand and persistent property weakness offset by resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech investment. Analyst consensus for full-year 2026 centers on 4.4–4.7%, aligning with the government’s 4.5–5% target and positioning the 4.3–4.9% bands as the dominant market-implied outcomes at a combined 89.5% probability. Low inflation, July PMI readings near 51, and expectations of potential reserve-requirement or policy-rate easing in coming months reinforce trader focus on these ranges, while downside risks from consumption shortfalls and external trade frictions keep lower outcomes priced modestly.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Wolumen
$17,613Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent H1 2026 GDP growth of 4.7% year-over-year, with Q2 decelerating to 4.3%, reflects softening domestic demand and persistent property weakness offset by resilient manufacturing exports and high-tech investment. Analyst consensus for full-year 2026 centers on 4.4–4.7%, aligning with the government’s 4.5–5% target and positioning the 4.3–4.9% bands as the dominant market-implied outcomes at a combined 89.5% probability. Low inflation, July PMI readings near 51, and expectations of potential reserve-requirement or policy-rate easing in coming months reinforce trader focus on these ranges, while downside risks from consumption shortfalls and external trade frictions keep lower outcomes priced modestly.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania