Canada’s population stood at a record 41.8 million on July 1, 2026, after revised Statistics Canada estimates showed 0.5% annual growth, the slowest pace since 1915, driven almost entirely by net international migration. Federal policy has sharply reduced temporary-resident inflows to 385,000 in 2026 and stabilized permanent-resident admissions at 380,000, while accelerating departures of non-permanent residents to bring their share below 5% of the total population by late 2027. These measures have already produced a 154,000 drop in non-permanent residents year-over-year, offsetting most permanent inflows and natural increase. Traders assign a slight edge to an overall decline by year-end because quarterly data and official targets point to continued net outflows of temporary residents through December, outweighing modest permanent immigration and births. Upcoming quarterly estimates and any adjustments to the 2026–2028 levels plan remain the key variables that could alter the balance.