Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—over minimal challenger totals, combined with his history of 58-63% general election victories and the district's strong Democratic lean (Kamala Harris 61% in 2024), drives trader consensus to 93% for Democratic Party retention in CA-24. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features a fragmented primary field including Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom's Helena Pasquarella, and lone Republican Bob Smith ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A Republican upset would require Carbajal's primary stumble or late scandal, though GOP weakness and local endorsements for the incumbent make this improbable absent a national Republican wave.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,462 Wol.
93%
Republican Party
$4,135 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—over minimal challenger totals, combined with his history of 58-63% general election victories and the district's strong Democratic lean (Kamala Harris 61% in 2024), drives trader consensus to 93% for Democratic Party retention in CA-24. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features a fragmented primary field including Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom's Helena Pasquarella, and lone Republican Bob Smith ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A Republican upset would require Carbajal's primary stumble or late scandal, though GOP weakness and local endorsements for the incumbent make this improbable absent a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$7,597Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—over minimal challenger totals, combined with his history of 58-63% general election victories and the district's strong Democratic lean (Kamala Harris 61% in 2024), drives trader consensus to 93% for Democratic Party retention in CA-24. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features a fragmented primary field including Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom's Helena Pasquarella, and lone Republican Bob Smith ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A Republican upset would require Carbajal's primary stumble or late scandal, though GOP weakness and local endorsements for the incumbent make this improbable absent a national Republican wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$7,597Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—over minimal challenger totals, combined with his history of 58-63% general election victories and the district's strong Democratic lean (Kamala Harris 61% in 2024), drives trader consensus to 93% for Democratic Party retention in CA-24. Rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and Safe by Sabato's Crystal Ball, the race features a fragmented primary field including Democrat Sarah Bacon, Peace and Freedom's Helena Pasquarella, and lone Republican Bob Smith ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A Republican upset would require Carbajal's primary stumble or late scandal, though GOP weakness and local endorsements for the incumbent make this improbable absent a national Republican wave.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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