California's 24th congressional district maintains a D+13 partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, providing a durable structural advantage for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2016 and a member of the New Democrat Coalition, faces a June 2 primary against limited challengers including Sarah Bacon before the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins above 60 percent and the absence of a credible Republican contender. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts, where outcomes rarely shift absent major local scandals or national realignments within the election cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
$17,918 Wol.
$17,918 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$17,918 Wol.
$17,918 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,034 Wol.
94%
Republican Party
$7,883 Wol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 24th congressional district maintains a D+13 partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, providing a durable structural advantage for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2016 and a member of the New Democrat Coalition, faces a June 2 primary against limited challengers including Sarah Bacon before the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins above 60 percent and the absence of a credible Republican contender. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts, where outcomes rarely shift absent major local scandals or national realignments within the election cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,918Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 24th congressional district maintains a D+13 partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, providing a durable structural advantage for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2016 and a member of the New Democrat Coalition, faces a June 2 primary against limited challengers including Sarah Bacon before the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins above 60 percent and the absence of a credible Republican contender. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts, where outcomes rarely shift absent major local scandals or national realignments within the election cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$17,918Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 24th congressional district maintains a D+13 partisan voter index based on recent presidential results, providing a durable structural advantage for Democratic candidates. Incumbent Salud Carbajal, first elected in 2016 and a member of the New Democrat Coalition, faces a June 2 primary against limited challengers including Sarah Bacon before the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the seat solid or safe Democratic, reflecting consistent past margins above 60 percent and the absence of a credible Republican contender. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with historical base rates for similarly partisan districts, where outcomes rarely shift absent major local scandals or national realignments within the election cycle.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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