The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-05 House Election Winner
CA-05 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,891 Wol.
83%
Democratic Party
$1,493 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,384Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$5,384Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party holds an 83% implied probability in the CA-05 House race due to the district’s R+8 to R+10 partisan voter index and the strong position of incumbent Representative Tom McClintock, who has represented the area since 2009 without facing serious primary opposition. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 2, 2026 top-two primary features McClintock against a fragmented Democratic field that includes Mike Barkley, Michael Masuda, and Dan Stroud, limiting any unified challenge. These structural factors, combined with the absence of notable shifts in recent polling or endorsements, underpin trader consensus on the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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