Flávio Bolsonaro's commanding position in São Paulo first-round trading reflects consistent leads in recent state polls, where he registers 35-41% support against Lula's 32-38% among local voters, with other contenders trailing in single digits. His Liberal Party candidacy, formalized in July 2026 as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, benefits from São Paulo's sizable conservative electorate and alignment with regional priorities on security and economic policy. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 92.5% given the stable polling gap and limited momentum for fragmented alternatives like Renan Santos or Augusto Cury. A reversal remains possible if national economic indicators shift sharply, major endorsements consolidate behind Lula, or unforeseen legal or campaign developments alter voter turnout dynamics before the October vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlavio Bolsonaro 93%
Lula 6.6%
Zema <1%
Samara <1%
$24,558 Wol.
$24,558 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
Lula
7%
Zema
1%
Samara
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 93%
Lula 6.6%
Zema <1%
Samara <1%
$24,558 Wol.
$24,558 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,705 Wol.
93%
Lula
$9,230 Wol.
7%
Zema
$693 Wol.
1%
Samara
$523 Wol.
1%
Renan Santos
$1,365 Wol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Wol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$526 Wol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$526 Wol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$497 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,189 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$522 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$527 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's commanding position in São Paulo first-round trading reflects consistent leads in recent state polls, where he registers 35-41% support against Lula's 32-38% among local voters, with other contenders trailing in single digits. His Liberal Party candidacy, formalized in July 2026 as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, benefits from São Paulo's sizable conservative electorate and alignment with regional priorities on security and economic policy. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 92.5% given the stable polling gap and limited momentum for fragmented alternatives like Renan Santos or Augusto Cury. A reversal remains possible if national economic indicators shift sharply, major endorsements consolidate behind Lula, or unforeseen legal or campaign developments alter voter turnout dynamics before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$24,558Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's commanding position in São Paulo first-round trading reflects consistent leads in recent state polls, where he registers 35-41% support against Lula's 32-38% among local voters, with other contenders trailing in single digits. His Liberal Party candidacy, formalized in July 2026 as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, benefits from São Paulo's sizable conservative electorate and alignment with regional priorities on security and economic policy. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 92.5% given the stable polling gap and limited momentum for fragmented alternatives like Renan Santos or Augusto Cury. A reversal remains possible if national economic indicators shift sharply, major endorsements consolidate behind Lula, or unforeseen legal or campaign developments alter voter turnout dynamics before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$24,558Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro's commanding position in São Paulo first-round trading reflects consistent leads in recent state polls, where he registers 35-41% support against Lula's 32-38% among local voters, with other contenders trailing in single digits. His Liberal Party candidacy, formalized in July 2026 as the standard-bearer for Bolsonarism following Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility, benefits from São Paulo's sizable conservative electorate and alignment with regional priorities on security and economic policy. Trader consensus prices this outcome at 92.5% given the stable polling gap and limited momentum for fragmented alternatives like Renan Santos or Augusto Cury. A reversal remains possible if national economic indicators shift sharply, major endorsements consolidate behind Lula, or unforeseen legal or campaign developments alter voter turnout dynamics before the October vote.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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