Recent surveys in Rio de Janeiro, including a Real Time Big Data poll from mid-September showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% versus Lula at 33% with all other names in single digits, underpin trader consensus on his commanding position for first place in the first round. The state's status as a bolsonarismo stronghold, combined with consistent leads in Datafolha and other state-level polling, has reinforced this edge ahead of the October vote. Factors such as local voter preferences and limited national spillover from other contenders sustain the implied probability near 90%. Potential shifts could arise from late campaign events, turnout variations among key blocs, or unforeseen legal or economic developments within the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlavio Bolsonaro 91%
Lula 9%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$25,096 Wol.
$25,096 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
91%
Lula
9%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 91%
Lula 9%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$25,096 Wol.
$25,096 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$11,079 Wol.
91%
Lula
$7,780 Wol.
9%
Clariana Barao
$375 Wol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Wol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,393 Wol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$639 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Wol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Wol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Wol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent surveys in Rio de Janeiro, including a Real Time Big Data poll from mid-September showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% versus Lula at 33% with all other names in single digits, underpin trader consensus on his commanding position for first place in the first round. The state's status as a bolsonarismo stronghold, combined with consistent leads in Datafolha and other state-level polling, has reinforced this edge ahead of the October vote. Factors such as local voter preferences and limited national spillover from other contenders sustain the implied probability near 90%. Potential shifts could arise from late campaign events, turnout variations among key blocs, or unforeseen legal or economic developments within the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Wolumen
$25,096Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent surveys in Rio de Janeiro, including a Real Time Big Data poll from mid-September showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% versus Lula at 33% with all other names in single digits, underpin trader consensus on his commanding position for first place in the first round. The state's status as a bolsonarismo stronghold, combined with consistent leads in Datafolha and other state-level polling, has reinforced this edge ahead of the October vote. Factors such as local voter preferences and limited national spillover from other contenders sustain the implied probability near 90%. Potential shifts could arise from late campaign events, turnout variations among key blocs, or unforeseen legal or economic developments within the final weeks.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$25,096Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent surveys in Rio de Janeiro, including a Real Time Big Data poll from mid-September showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 40% versus Lula at 33% with all other names in single digits, underpin trader consensus on his commanding position for first place in the first round. The state's status as a bolsonarismo stronghold, combined with consistent leads in Datafolha and other state-level polling, has reinforced this edge ahead of the October vote. Factors such as local voter preferences and limited national spillover from other contenders sustain the implied probability near 90%. Potential shifts could arise from late campaign events, turnout variations among key blocs, or unforeseen legal or economic developments within the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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