**Trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting reflects expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering, consistent with the institution’s gradual normalization path.** After the June hike to 1%, the July hold and recent communications from Governor Ueda—emphasizing data-dependent decisions and upside inflation risks—have kept the focus on service prices, yen depreciation, and pass-through from energy and import costs. July CPI at 1.9% (core 1.8%) remains below the 2% target despite upward pressures, supporting a measured pace rather than back-to-back moves. Market-implied odds align with economist surveys favoring quarterly or semiannual adjustments, leaving October unchanged as the base case unless September data or yen moves force acceleration.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo change 91%
25 bps increase 10%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$60,275 Wol.
$60,275 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
91%
25 bps increase
10%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 91%
25 bps increase 10%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$60,275 Wol.
$60,275 Wol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,700 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$4,192 Wol.
<1%
No change
$27,531 Wol.
91%
25 bps increase
$20,721 Wol.
10%
50+ bps increase
$5,130 Wol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting reflects expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering, consistent with the institution’s gradual normalization path.** After the June hike to 1%, the July hold and recent communications from Governor Ueda—emphasizing data-dependent decisions and upside inflation risks—have kept the focus on service prices, yen depreciation, and pass-through from energy and import costs. July CPI at 1.9% (core 1.8%) remains below the 2% target despite upward pressures, supporting a measured pace rather than back-to-back moves. Market-implied odds align with economist surveys favoring quarterly or semiannual adjustments, leaving October unchanged as the base case unless September data or yen moves force acceleration.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$60,275Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting reflects expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering, consistent with the institution’s gradual normalization path.** After the June hike to 1%, the July hold and recent communications from Governor Ueda—emphasizing data-dependent decisions and upside inflation risks—have kept the focus on service prices, yen depreciation, and pass-through from energy and import costs. July CPI at 1.9% (core 1.8%) remains below the 2% target despite upward pressures, supporting a measured pace rather than back-to-back moves. Market-implied odds align with economist surveys favoring quarterly or semiannual adjustments, leaving October unchanged as the base case unless September data or yen moves force acceleration.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$60,275Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus for no change at the Bank of Japan’s October meeting reflects expectations that any near-term tightening will likely occur at the September 17-18 gathering, consistent with the institution’s gradual normalization path.** After the June hike to 1%, the July hold and recent communications from Governor Ueda—emphasizing data-dependent decisions and upside inflation risks—have kept the focus on service prices, yen depreciation, and pass-through from energy and import costs. July CPI at 1.9% (core 1.8%) remains below the 2% target despite upward pressures, supporting a measured pace rather than back-to-back moves. Market-implied odds align with economist surveys favoring quarterly or semiannual adjustments, leaving October unchanged as the base case unless September data or yen moves force acceleration.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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