Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of Japan Decision in March?
Bank of Japan Decision in March?
No change 100.0%
Decrease rates <1%
25 bps increase <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$0.00 Wol.
$0.00 Wol.
Mar 19, 2026
Decrease rates
No
No change
Yes
25 bps increase
No
50+ bps increase
No
No change 100.0%
Decrease rates <1%
25 bps increase <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$0.00 Wol.
$0.00 Wol.
Mar 19, 2026
Decrease rates
$0 Wol.
No
No change
$0 Wol.
Yes
25 bps increase
$0 Wol.
No
50+ bps increase
$0 Wol.
No
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Mar 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for March is scheduled to be released on March 19, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's March 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Mar 19, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 22, 2025, 12:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wynik zaproponowany: No
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: No
Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate for the March meeting, with 100% implied probability reflecting consensus on the bank's cautious normalization path amid persistent below-target inflation. Key drivers include Governor Kazuo Ueda's recent dovish signals, subdued core CPI at 2.5% year-over-year—below the 2% goal—and weak wage growth data from shunto negotiations, limiting room for hikes despite yield curve control tweaks. Global uncertainties, including U.S. election risks and softening Chinese demand, further anchor expectations. Realistic challenges would require surprise upside in February CPI (due March 22) exceeding 3% or sudden yen weakness prompting intervention, though historical precedent favors status quo continuity.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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