**Recent Copernicus ERA5 data confirming August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the >1.29 °C outcome.** This reading exceeds the prior August 2024 record by roughly 0.14 °C and aligns with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño added substantial short-term forcing. With final monthly aggregates now available and the observed value well above the threshold, only substantial revisions to the ERA5 dataset or alternative indices could alter the outcome—scenarios considered highly improbable given the margin and cross-dataset consistency.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Wol.
$14,173 Wol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Wol.
$14,173 Wol.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Wol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Wol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Wol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,099 Wol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Wol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Wol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Recent Copernicus ERA5 data confirming August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the >1.29 °C outcome.** This reading exceeds the prior August 2024 record by roughly 0.14 °C and aligns with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño added substantial short-term forcing. With final monthly aggregates now available and the observed value well above the threshold, only substantial revisions to the ERA5 dataset or alternative indices could alter the outcome—scenarios considered highly improbable given the margin and cross-dataset consistency.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,173Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Recent Copernicus ERA5 data confirming August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the >1.29 °C outcome.** This reading exceeds the prior August 2024 record by roughly 0.14 °C and aligns with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño added substantial short-term forcing. With final monthly aggregates now available and the observed value well above the threshold, only substantial revisions to the ERA5 dataset or alternative indices could alter the outcome—scenarios considered highly improbable given the margin and cross-dataset consistency.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$14,173Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Copernicus ERA5 data confirming August 2026 as the warmest August on record at 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline has driven overwhelming trader consensus toward the >1.29 °C outcome.** This reading exceeds the prior August 2024 record by roughly 0.14 °C and aligns with record global sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1 °C in late August amid a rapidly strengthening El Niño event. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the underlying trend, while the developing El Niño added substantial short-term forcing. With final monthly aggregates now available and the observed value well above the threshold, only substantial revisions to the ERA5 dataset or alternative indices could alter the outcome—scenarios considered highly improbable given the margin and cross-dataset consistency.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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