Recent incidents have driven the 82.5% market-implied odds for another Codex outage before year-end. OpenAI’s coding agent suffered a 56-minute full outage on September 25 affecting the web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, followed by elevated errors across Codex and related services on September 29 and degraded performance with Dot thread failures on October 7. These events highlight persistent scaling and reliability challenges for the large language model platform amid growing usage. With multiple disruptions already logged in late 2026 and several months remaining, traders view further incidents as likely absent major infrastructure upgrades.