**The 2025 federal election produced a Liberal majority government under Prime Minister Mark Carney, which has since been reinforced by by-election gains and floor crossings to reach 173 seats.** Current polling averages show the Liberals holding a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, reducing immediate pressure for an early dissolution. The fixed-date election remains set for October 15, 2029, under the Canada Elections Act, and no confidence motion or supply defeat has threatened the government. Recent provincial contests, including the Parti Québécois minority win in Quebec and the upcoming British Columbia vote, along with the Alberta independence referendum, have drawn attention but have not altered federal stability. Traders price a low probability of Parliament being dissolved before mid-2027 because the majority provides no structural incentive for a snap election in the near term.