South Africa leads Group D after two AFCON 2027 qualifying matchdays with a perfect record, six points, and a +6 goal difference following a 2-1 win over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea. These results have driven trader consensus toward Bafana Bafana at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting their superior recent form, depth, and head-to-head edge in the group. Guinea sits second on three points after defeating Kenya 1-0, supporting their 22% market share as the clearest challenger. Kenya (already qualified as co-host) and Eritrea trail with one point each after mixed opening results, keeping their probabilities minimal. Remaining fixtures, including South Africa versus Kenya in November, will shape final standings but have not yet altered the early momentum.