Éric Zemmour’s September 2026 confirmation on BFMTV that he will run for president in 2027 has anchored trader expectations for Reconquête’s nomination. The party founder and president explicitly stated he is “a candidate for the presidency of the Republic,” moving earlier than his prior December timeline and clarifying the internal dynamic with MEP Sarah Knafo. Knafo, who has repeatedly described Zemmour as Reconquête’s “natural candidate,” has focused on economic messaging through her bestselling book and 2026 Paris municipal run without contesting the presidential slot. No party primary or alternative process has emerged, and recent activity centers on Zemmour’s planned formal announcement in November. This sequence of public statements and Knafo’s consistent positioning underpins the current 81.5% implied probability for Zemmour.