OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, positioned as a major capability leap in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity, alongside Anthropic’s concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that extended leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar evaluations, forms the core driver behind current market odds. Traders see these frontier updates tightening the race for second place behind Anthropic, with OpenAI at 32.5% and Meta at 30.5% reflecting their recent momentum versus Google’s lower 7.0% share. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and ongoing open-weight efficiency gains add competitive pressure, while broader dynamics hinge on benchmark shifts, compute scaling, and any late-month model refinements before end-September resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
OpenAI 33%
Meta 31%
Anthropic 16.3%
Google 7%
$57,028 Wol.
$57,028 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
33%
Meta
31%
Anthropic
16%
7%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meituan
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 33%
Meta 31%
Anthropic 16.3%
Google 7%
$57,028 Wol.
$57,028 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$9,359 Wol.
33%
Meta
$17,323 Wol.
31%
Anthropic
$2,237 Wol.
16%
$8,419 Wol.
7%
Z.ai
$1,152 Wol.
3%
Moonshot
$1,276 Wol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$979 Wol.
2%
Meituan
$1,051 Wol.
1%
Alibaba
$4,560 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,228 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$996 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$968 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$774 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,534 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,017 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$645 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$820 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$733 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, positioned as a major capability leap in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity, alongside Anthropic’s concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that extended leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar evaluations, forms the core driver behind current market odds. Traders see these frontier updates tightening the race for second place behind Anthropic, with OpenAI at 32.5% and Meta at 30.5% reflecting their recent momentum versus Google’s lower 7.0% share. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and ongoing open-weight efficiency gains add competitive pressure, while broader dynamics hinge on benchmark shifts, compute scaling, and any late-month model refinements before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$57,028Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, positioned as a major capability leap in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity, alongside Anthropic’s concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that extended leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar evaluations, forms the core driver behind current market odds. Traders see these frontier updates tightening the race for second place behind Anthropic, with OpenAI at 32.5% and Meta at 30.5% reflecting their recent momentum versus Google’s lower 7.0% share. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and ongoing open-weight efficiency gains add competitive pressure, while broader dynamics hinge on benchmark shifts, compute scaling, and any late-month model refinements before end-September resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$57,028Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 3 launch of GPT-6 Astra, positioned as a major capability leap in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity, alongside Anthropic’s concurrent Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 releases that extended leadership on Terminal-Bench and similar evaluations, forms the core driver behind current market odds. Traders see these frontier updates tightening the race for second place behind Anthropic, with OpenAI at 32.5% and Meta at 30.5% reflecting their recent momentum versus Google’s lower 7.0% share. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and ongoing open-weight efficiency gains add competitive pressure, while broader dynamics hinge on benchmark shifts, compute scaling, and any late-month model refinements before end-September resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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