Recent model releases have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai’s text leaderboard with style control enabled. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 gains in coding and agentic tasks, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 refinements have kept the top labs within striking distance of one another. Trader consensus prices Meta and Google highest among contenders while assigning single-digit odds to most others, reflecting uncertainty over which lab can sustain incremental benchmark edges through October. Key swing factors include forthcoming arena updates, efficiency improvements, and any additional frontier releases before the October 31 resolution snapshot.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
Meta 32%
Google 27%
OpenAI 14%
Anthropic 11%
$21,946 Wol.
$21,946 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
32%
27%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic
11%
Alibaba
7%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 32%
Google 27%
OpenAI 14%
Anthropic 11%
$21,946 Wol.
$21,946 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$4,456 Wol.
32%
$6,322 Wol.
27%
OpenAI
$1,830 Wol.
14%
Anthropic
$857 Wol.
11%
Alibaba
$517 Wol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$498 Wol.
1%
DeepSeek
$483 Wol.
1%
ByteDance
$553 Wol.
1%
Z.ai
$493 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$501 Wol.
1%
Baidu
$463 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$512 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$553 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$530 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$535 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$421 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$512 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$470 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai’s text leaderboard with style control enabled. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 gains in coding and agentic tasks, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 refinements have kept the top labs within striking distance of one another. Trader consensus prices Meta and Google highest among contenders while assigning single-digit odds to most others, reflecting uncertainty over which lab can sustain incremental benchmark edges through October. Key swing factors include forthcoming arena updates, efficiency improvements, and any additional frontier releases before the October 31 resolution snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,946Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai’s text leaderboard with style control enabled. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 gains in coding and agentic tasks, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 refinements have kept the top labs within striking distance of one another. Trader consensus prices Meta and Google highest among contenders while assigning single-digit odds to most others, reflecting uncertainty over which lab can sustain incremental benchmark edges through October. Key swing factors include forthcoming arena updates, efficiency improvements, and any additional frontier releases before the October 31 resolution snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$21,946Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai’s text leaderboard with style control enabled. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 gains in coding and agentic tasks, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates, and Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 refinements have kept the top labs within striking distance of one another. Trader consensus prices Meta and Google highest among contenders while assigning single-digit odds to most others, reflecting uncertainty over which lab can sustain incremental benchmark edges through October. Key swing factors include forthcoming arena updates, efficiency improvements, and any additional frontier releases before the October 31 resolution snapshot.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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