Meta's strong 83.5% market-implied probability for the #2 AI lab position by end of August stems primarily from its rapid iteration on open-weight models and competitive arena performance under style control settings, positioning it just behind Anthropic's leading Claude variants. Traders see Meta benefiting from consistent developer adoption, hardware optimizations, and recent internal lab milestones that have narrowed gaps on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail amid slower visible releases. With only two weeks until resolution, attention centers on any final leaderboard shifts from capability updates or new model drops, though Anthropic's top spot and the crowded mid-tier field at 50% odds underscore the snapshot's sensitivity to incremental progress.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#2 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)
Meta 84%
OpenAI 3.6%
Alibaba 3.1%
Google 3.0%
$79,951 Wol.
$79,951 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Meta
84%
OpenAI
4%
Alibaba
3%
3%
Moonshot
2%
Anthropic
2%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meta 84%
OpenAI 3.6%
Alibaba 3.1%
Google 3.0%
$79,951 Wol.
$79,951 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
Meta
$16,341 Wol.
84%
OpenAI
$4,301 Wol.
4%
Alibaba
$7,044 Wol.
3%
$16,304 Wol.
3%
Moonshot
$3,663 Wol.
2%
Anthropic
$3,673 Wol.
2%
ByteDance
$2,998 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$2,966 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,013 Wol.
<1%
Thinky
$2,914 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$3,010 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$3,045 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$2,925 Wol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$2,968 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,116 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$593 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$570 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$586 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$716 Wol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$549 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong 83.5% market-implied probability for the #2 AI lab position by end of August stems primarily from its rapid iteration on open-weight models and competitive arena performance under style control settings, positioning it just behind Anthropic's leading Claude variants. Traders see Meta benefiting from consistent developer adoption, hardware optimizations, and recent internal lab milestones that have narrowed gaps on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail amid slower visible releases. With only two weeks until resolution, attention centers on any final leaderboard shifts from capability updates or new model drops, though Anthropic's top spot and the crowded mid-tier field at 50% odds underscore the snapshot's sensitivity to incremental progress.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$79,951Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's strong 83.5% market-implied probability for the #2 AI lab position by end of August stems primarily from its rapid iteration on open-weight models and competitive arena performance under style control settings, positioning it just behind Anthropic's leading Claude variants. Traders see Meta benefiting from consistent developer adoption, hardware optimizations, and recent internal lab milestones that have narrowed gaps on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail amid slower visible releases. With only two weeks until resolution, attention centers on any final leaderboard shifts from capability updates or new model drops, though Anthropic's top spot and the crowded mid-tier field at 50% odds underscore the snapshot's sensitivity to incremental progress.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$79,951Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 20, 2026, 8:54 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's strong 83.5% market-implied probability for the #2 AI lab position by end of August stems primarily from its rapid iteration on open-weight models and competitive arena performance under style control settings, positioning it just behind Anthropic's leading Claude variants. Traders see Meta benefiting from consistent developer adoption, hardware optimizations, and recent internal lab milestones that have narrowed gaps on benchmarks like LMSYS Arena, while OpenAI, Google, and others trail amid slower visible releases. With only two weeks until resolution, attention centers on any final leaderboard shifts from capability updates or new model drops, though Anthropic's top spot and the crowded mid-tier field at 50% odds underscore the snapshot's sensitivity to incremental progress.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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