This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

> 0.5% after March meeting?

Above 1% after June meeting? (25 bips or more)

Above 0.75% After May Meeting

Above 1.50% after June meeting? (75 bips or more)

Above 2.00% after July meeting? (50 bps or more)

Above 2.25% after July meeting? (75 bps or more)

Above 2.50% after July meeting? (100 bps or more)

75 bps increase after September meeting? 

50 bps increase after September meeting? 

100 bps increase after September meeting? 

25 bps increase after September meeting? 

25 bps increase after Nov meeting?

50 bps increase after Nov meeting?

75 bps increase after Nov meeting?

100 bps increase after Nov meeting?

Fed Interest Rates

Jobless claims are a statistic reported weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor that counts people filing to receive unemployment insurance benefits. There are two categories of jobless claims—initial, which comprises filings for the first time by unemployed individuals after their separation from an employer, and continuing, which consists of unemployed people who have already been receiving unemployment benefits.  The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.

This is a market on the (seasonally adjusted) number of Americans that filed initial jobless claims for the week ending Saturday, September 24, 2022.  

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 215,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on September 24, 2022. Otherwise, if the number is equal to or lower than 215,000 this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, September 24, 2022, expected to be released on Thursday, September 29, 2022, 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. The up-to-date release of Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report can be found at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 

If the relevant data is not available by October 6, 2022, 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will weekly jobless initial claims exceed 215k for the week ending September 24?

This is a market group on when TWTR will be delisted from the NYSE.

By July 31?

By September 30?

By December 30?

Will TWTR be delisted from the NYSE..?

As of the time of this market's inception, July 27, 2022, Brian Armstrong is the chief executive officer (CEO) of Coinbase Global, Inc. - an American company that operates the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States by trade volume.

On June 14, 2022, Coinbase announced that it will be laying off about 18% of its employees to ensure they "stay healthy during this economic downturn." Additionally, Coinbase stock has decreased in value by approximately 80% since the beginning of 2022, and it presently faces a fresh round of investigations by the SEC after an insider trading scandal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong remains CEO of Coinbase from the date of this market's inception, July 27, 2022 through December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Brian Armstrong will no longer be CEO on or before December 31 will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Only confirmation that Brian Armstrong is no longer CEO of Coinbase within the market timeframe will result in this market resolving to "No".

This market will resolve according to official press releases from Coinbase as well as the information in their 'About' section or from their official blog: https://twitter.com/coinbase, https://www.coinbase.com/about, https://blog.coinbase.com/. A consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Will Brian Armstrong remain CEO of Coinbase through 2022?

This is a market on whether the price of crude oil futures contract for November 2022 (CLX2) will settle at $80.00 or higher as of market close on October 3, 2022. If the value of NOV 22 crude futures settle at $80.00 or greater as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the value of NOV 22 crude futures settles at less than $80.00 as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.  

If for any reason (e.g. market holiday, emergency market closure) there is no settlement price for this market's resolution date, the settlement price of the nearest previous date will be used.  

The resolution source for this market will be CME Group's reporting on the values offered by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, found at (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “Settle” in the row titled “NOV 22" when Final Data is available for the trade date of this market's resolution date.

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $80 or more on October 3, 2022? (NOV 2022 Future)

This is a market on whether the price for Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts for November 2022 (NGX2) will settle at $7.000 or higher as of market close on October 3, 2022. If the value of NOV 22 natural gas futures settles at $7.000 or greater as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the value of NOV 22 natural gas futures settles at less than $7.000 as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.  

If for any reason (e.g. market holiday, emergency market closure) there is no close price for this market's resolution date, the close price of the nearest previous date will be used.  

The resolution source for this market will be CME Group's reporting on the values offered by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for Henry Hub Natural Gas futures, found at (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.settlements.html). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “Settle” in the row titled "NOV 22" when Final Data is available for the trade date of this market's resolution date.

Will the price of natural gas be $7.00 or more on October 3, 2022? (NOV 2022 Future)

If the dollar price (exchange rate) of one euro (EUR) reaches $1.0001 or above after September 22 and before November 1, 2022 (according to the "High" column on investing.com), this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the EUR/USD currency exchange rate found on investing.com, specifically the historical daily "High" column: https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-historical-data.

This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as the dollar price of one euro reaches $1.0001 or above on the resolution source within the market timeframe, according to the "High" column. This market may resolve to "No" only after the "High" price for October 31, 2022 on the "EUR/USD Historical Data" chart is finalized, and the dollar price of one euro has not reached $1.0001 or above within the market's timeframe. 

If for any reason (e.g. market holiday, emergency market closure) there is no "Price" on that chart for this market's resolution date, the "Price" of the nearest previous date will be used.

Will EUR be worth more than USD again before November?

If the BEA reports an annual rate of change below 0.0% in real GDP from the preceding quarter for Q3 of 2022, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be reporting from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis, specifically the GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2022. 

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

The BEA's GDP release for Q3 of 2022 is scheduled for October 27, 2022.

Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will US GDP shrink for a 3rd straight quarter?

This is a market about whether there will be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022, posited by Nate Silver: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1476930984931168276?s=21.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if on November 8, 2022, all ordinary domestic airplane travellers are required by law to wear a mask that completely covers the mouth and nose while using airplane transportation. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

For this market to resolve to “Yes”, the mandate must be issued by a federal agency, such as the CDC or TSA - not solely by airplane companies.

Please note, if there is a mask mandate that is applicable to all ordinary passengers but vaccinated people, it will NOT be sufficient to resolve the market to “Yes.”

Note also that the mask mandates in question do not have to be due to COVID-19. 

[From Nate Silver] Will there be a federal mask requirement on US domestic flights on November 8, 2022?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk becomes the CEO of Twitter after the date of this market's inception, April 26, 2022 and by September 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Elon Musk will become CEO on or before September 30 will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Only a confirmation that Elon Musk is CEO of Twitter, by an official press release of the company or a consensus of credible media sources, within the market timeframe will result in this market resolving to "Yes".

This market will resolve according to official press releases from Twitter as well as the information in their 'About' sections: https://investor.twitterinc.com/corporate-governance/board-of-directors/default.aspx, https://about.twitter.com/en/who-we-are/our-company. A consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter by September 30?

As of the time of this market's inception, April 26, 2022, Jack Dorsey is the chief executive officer (CEO) of Block, Inc. - an American financial services and digital payments company. During the years 2006-2008 and 2015-2021 he was the CEO of Twitter, Inc., which he cofounded.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jack Dorsey becomes the CEO of Twitter after the date of this market's inception, April 26, 2022 and by September 30, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Jack Dorsey will become CEO on or before September 30 will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Only confirmation that Jack Dorsey is again CEO of Twitter will result in this market resolving to "Yes".

This market will resolve according to official press releases from Twitter as well as the information in their 'About' sections: https://investor.twitterinc.com/corporate-governance/board-of-directors/default.aspx, https://about.twitter.com/en/who-we-are/our-company. A consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Will Jack Dorsey return as CEO of Twitter by September 30?

This is a market on whether more than 2.5 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day between August 25, 2022 and September 30, 2022 (inclusive).  

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. Should this URL change or move locations a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.   

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 2,500,000 for any day between August 25, 2022 and September 30, 2022 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until data for September 30, 2022 is available.  

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of September 30, 2022 or on any date before that if the target number is reached within the market timeframe. If the target number has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the days from August 25, 2022 to September 30, 2022, by October 7, 2022, the market will resolve to 50-50.  Any revisions published to data for dates August 25, 2022 and onward prior to the release of data for September 30, 2022 will be considered.


Will more than 2.5 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day by September 30?

This is a market on whether the price of crude oil futures contract for November 2022 (CLX2) will settle at $85.00 or higher as of market close on September 26, 2022. If the value of NOV 22 crude futures settle at $85.00 or greater as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the value of NOV 22 crude futures settles at less than $85.00 as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.  

If for any reason (e.g. market holiday, emergency market closure) there is no settlement price for this market's resolution date, the settlement price of the nearest previous date will be used.  

The resolution source for this market will be CME Group's reporting on the values offered by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, found at (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “Settle” in the row titled “NOV 22" when Final Data is available for the trade date of this market's resolution date.

Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $85.00 or more on September 26, 2022? (NOV 2022 Future)

This is a market on whether the price for Henry Hub natural gas futures contracts for October 2022 (NGV2), will settle at $8.000 or higher as of market close on September 26, 2022. If the value of OCT 22 natural gas futures settles at $8.000 or greater as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the value of OCT 22 natural gas futures settles at less than $8.000 as of market close on the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”.  

If for any reason (e.g. market holiday, emergency market closure) there is no close price for this market's resolution date, the close price of the nearest previous date will be used.  

The resolution source for this market will be CME Group's reporting on the values offered by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) for Henry Hub Natural Gas futures, found at (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.settlements.html). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “Settle” in the row titled "OCT 22" when Final Data is available for the trade date of this market's resolution date.