This is a market group on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from October to November 2022. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS November 2022 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on December 13, 2022, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

What will U.S. inflation be from October to November 2022?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried, co-founder and CEO of FTX, is indicted on federal charges or otherwise formally charged with any federal crime by the United States of America between November 10, 2022 and December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the federal government of the United States (from sources such as https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel, https://www.justice.gov/news), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Will SBF be federally indicted by EOY?

This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

Fed Interest Rates

As of the time of this market's inception, July 27, 2022, Brian Armstrong is the chief executive officer (CEO) of Coinbase Global, Inc. - an American company that operates the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the United States by trade volume.

On June 14, 2022, Coinbase announced that it will be laying off about 18% of its employees to ensure they "stay healthy during this economic downturn." Additionally, Coinbase stock has decreased in value by approximately 80% since the beginning of 2022, and it presently faces a fresh round of investigations by the SEC after an insider trading scandal.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brian Armstrong remains CEO of Coinbase from the date of this market's inception, July 27, 2022 through December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Brian Armstrong will no longer be CEO on or before December 31 will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Only confirmation that Brian Armstrong is no longer CEO of Coinbase within the market timeframe will result in this market resolving to "No".

This market will resolve according to official press releases from Coinbase as well as the information in their 'About' section or from their official blog: https://twitter.com/coinbase, https://www.coinbase.com/about, https://blog.coinbase.com/. A consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Will Brian Armstrong remain CEO of Coinbase through 2022?

On November 23, 2022 SBF tweeted "I’ll be speaking with @andrewrsorkin at the @dealbook summit next Wednesday (11/30)." (https://twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1595512579417378837)

If Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) physically appears at the New York Times (NYT) DealBook Summit, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market "physically appears" means that SBF appears on the premises of the conference in-person. Any telecommuting or streamed/prerecorded appearance at the conference will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes"

If the NYT DealBook Summit is rescheduled to occur on any date up to December 14, 2022, this market may resolve normally according to the rules as-written. If the NYT DealBook Summit is rescheduled to a date after December 14, 2022, or is otherwise cancelled, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York Times, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Will SBF show up to the NYT DealBook Summit?

If Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is arrested by any government of any country before Ben Armstrong, this market will resolve to "SBF".

If Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) is arrested by any government of any country before Sam Bankman-Fried, this market will resolve to "Bitboy".

If neither Sam Bankman-Fried nor Ben Armstrong is arrested before January 1, 2023, 12:00:00 AM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information released by any government arresting either Sam Bankman-Fried or Ben Armstrong, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will SBF or Bitboy be arrested first?

In August 2022, Fitch, Moody's, and S&P Global Ratings downgraded Credit Suisse Group AG's credit ratings, due to uncertainty that Credit Suisse's restructuring efforts would be successful during macroeconomic instability. Shares of the company's stock have dropped dramatically over the course of 2022, and in spite of continued assurances that they are not at risk, rumors abound that the company faces a dramatic risk of bankruptcy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Credit Suisse Group AG announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any subsidiary of Credit Suisse Group AG announces that it will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by the resolution date. A simplified map of Credit Suisse Group AG is currently available here: https://www.credit-suisse.com/about-us/en/investor-relations/corporate-and-share-information/corporate-information/legal-structure.html.

For a positive resolution to this market to occur, Credit Suisse Group AG need only announce that they will file for bankruptcy, is filing for bankruptcy, or has filed for bankruptcy by the resolution date, regardless of when the actual filing occurs.

An "announcement by Credit Suisse Group AG" must be made through any of their official or verified channels (e.g. https://www.credit-suisse.com/global/en.html,  https://twitter.com/CreditSuisse, https://lu.linkedin.com/company/credit-suisse, https://www.facebook.com/creditsuisse, etc.), as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents Credit Suisse. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine whether Credit Suisse has issued such an announcement.