This is a market on whether there will be a variant that overtakes the Omicron variant in the US by May 17, 2022. The market will resolve to “Yes” if in the US, a variant has a higher proportion of cases than Omicron on any day after the inception of this market, January 10, 2022, and on or before May 17, 2022. Otherwise, the market will resolver to “No.”

The resolution source will be the weekly CDC Nowcast reports on variant proportions: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. The source will be checked daily at 8 PM ET to see if any of their reports within the market timeframe has a variant with higher % in the TOTAL column than Omicron. The final check will be on May 17, 2022, at 8 PM ET.

If the link to the source changes, the new source will be used. If the source is unavailable for any of the checks, https://covariants.org/per-country will be used instead.

Will there be a variant that overtakes Omicron in the US by May 17th?

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