The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for September 20-21 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. After the July 2022 meeting, the upper bound of the federal funds rate was set to 2.50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is set to exactly 2.75% (an increase of 25 basis points from the previous level) following the Federal Reserve's September 2022 meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued.

If no statement is released by September 28, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

25 bps increase after September meeting? 

This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after their September meeting?

About this market