Recent ECB actions and data have anchored expectations for a July hold. Following the unanimous 25 basis point hike on June 11 that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent, updated Eurosystem projections showed 2026 headline inflation revised higher to 3.0 percent amid elevated energy prices, while core measures reached 2.5 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment near 6.3 percent, and the bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance have reinforced trader consensus that the June adjustment addressed near-term pressures without requiring immediate follow-through. The modest 19 percent probability of an additional 25 basis point move reflects lingering risks from commodity markets, while near-zero odds on cuts align with the absence of softening signals. The July 23 decision will hinge on incoming inflation prints and growth indicators relative to the 2 percent target.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtECB Interest Rates: July 2026
ECB Interest Rates: July 2026
No change 81%
25 bps Increase 19%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$92,925 KL.
$92,925 KL.
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
81%
25 bps Increase
19%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 81%
25 bps Increase 19%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$92,925 KL.
$92,925 KL.
Jul 23, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$15,340 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$14,582 KL.
<1%
No change
$19,345 KL.
81%
25 bps Increase
$20,834 KL.
19%
50+ bps increase
$22,823 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent ECB actions and data have anchored expectations for a July hold. Following the unanimous 25 basis point hike on June 11 that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent, updated Eurosystem projections showed 2026 headline inflation revised higher to 3.0 percent amid elevated energy prices, while core measures reached 2.5 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment near 6.3 percent, and the bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance have reinforced trader consensus that the June adjustment addressed near-term pressures without requiring immediate follow-through. The modest 19 percent probability of an additional 25 basis point move reflects lingering risks from commodity markets, while near-zero odds on cuts align with the absence of softening signals. The July 23 decision will hinge on incoming inflation prints and growth indicators relative to the 2 percent target.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$92,925Ngày kết thúc
Jul 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent ECB actions and data have anchored expectations for a July hold. Following the unanimous 25 basis point hike on June 11 that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent, updated Eurosystem projections showed 2026 headline inflation revised higher to 3.0 percent amid elevated energy prices, while core measures reached 2.5 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment near 6.3 percent, and the bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance have reinforced trader consensus that the June adjustment addressed near-term pressures without requiring immediate follow-through. The modest 19 percent probability of an additional 25 basis point move reflects lingering risks from commodity markets, while near-zero odds on cuts align with the absence of softening signals. The July 23 decision will hinge on incoming inflation prints and growth indicators relative to the 2 percent target.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 22-23, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$92,925Ngày kết thúc
Jul 23, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECB actions and data have anchored expectations for a July hold. Following the unanimous 25 basis point hike on June 11 that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25 percent, updated Eurosystem projections showed 2026 headline inflation revised higher to 3.0 percent amid elevated energy prices, while core measures reached 2.5 percent. The resilient labor market, with unemployment near 6.3 percent, and the bank’s data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance have reinforced trader consensus that the June adjustment addressed near-term pressures without requiring immediate follow-through. The modest 19 percent probability of an additional 25 basis point move reflects lingering risks from commodity markets, while near-zero odds on cuts align with the absence of softening signals. The July 23 decision will hinge on incoming inflation prints and growth indicators relative to the 2 percent target.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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