Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBank of Canada decision in April?
Bank of Canada decision in April?
No change 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
Increase <1%
$251,926 KL.
$251,926 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
No
25 bps decrease
No
No change
Yes
Increase
No
No change 100.0%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
Increase <1%
$251,926 KL.
$251,926 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$80,110 KL.
No
25 bps decrease
$50,784 KL.
No
No change
$81,691 KL.
Yes
Increase
$39,342 KL.
No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$251,926Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$251,926Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to no change in the Bank of Canada's April policy rate, directly reflecting the central bank's April 29 announcement holding the target overnight rate steady at 2.25% amid balanced risks. March 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year, driven by gasoline surges from the Iran war's oil shock—projected transitory with core measures stable above 2% and long-term expectations anchored—offset by a softening labor market (unemployment in the 6.5%-7% range) and modest GDP growth forecast at 1.2% for 2026 under US tariff pressures. Governing Council is monitoring for persistence in energy-led inflation, with readiness to adjust; next decision June 10. Realistic challenges include extended Middle East volatility broadening price pressures, though post-announcement positioning remains firmly entrenched.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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