This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 53% or higher for the date of July 1, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/, specifically the approval rating displayed in the graphical display (which rounds to one decimal point, i.e. the nearest tenth of percent), with “All polls” selected. The resolution date for this market will be July 2, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET, whereupon data published for the day of July 1, 2021 will be checked. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joe Biden’s approval rating is 53.0% or higher on to the resolution source on the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if Joe Biden’s approval rating is less than 53.0% on the resolution source on the resolution date. 

Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If data is still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve 50-50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 53% or higher on July 1, 2021?

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