This is a market on if Donald Trump will be inaugurated for his second term as President of the United States of America, on Inauguration Day—January 20th, 2021. At the time of market creation, AP, CNN, WSJ, Fox, and more have called the election for Joe Biden as the winner, and formally declared him the president-elect, however Trump vows to contest the result legally. 

Inauguration Day is the day when the newly elected President is sworn in, and takes place at the beginning of every new term, regardless of if it is a new president, or the incumbent president is entering their second term. It has taken place on January 20th every time since 1937, unless it’s been a Sunday, which it is not in 2021. In the highly unlikely event the Inauguration Day date is changed to any other day before February 1st, 2021, it will be treated as the official Inauguration Day and resolution date for this market, and the same conditions will apply. 

This market will not resolve, under any circumstances, until the resolution date—Inauguration Day. If Joe Biden, or anyone else other than Donald Trump, is inaugurated that day as President of the USA, the market will resolve to “No”. If Trump claims he is still president, but is not officially inaugurated on Inauguration Day, the market will resolve to “No”. If for any reason, Trump is not inaugurated for the next term before February 1st, 2021, the market will resolve to “No”. If he is officially inaugurated for his second term on Inauguration Day the market will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be https://www.usa.gov/presidents#item-37462 and https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/presidents/, both official government sources.

Use this market to gauge the likelihood or capitalize on your conviction in President Trump being able to successfully alter the current state and results of the election, via legal means or otherwise, before the next presidential term begins.

Don't believe the election result?

As the Trump administration purports a narrative that much of the results and voting statistics are false, use this market to accurately price the likelihood of Trump's triumph before inauguration day, and to settle disputes with devout Trump supporters.

Think Trump has no chance at overturning the results?

As the news is filled with conflicting claims and narratives, with AP and others calling the election for Biden, and the Trump administration vowing lengthy legal battles, follow this market to gauge the likelihood that Trump's narrative will be substantiated before the next term begins.

Will Donald Trump be inaugurated for his second term as President of the USA on Inauguration Day, January 20th, 2021?

About this market

Use cases

Don't believe the election result?

Think Trump has no chance at overturning the results?

American citizen?