This is a market on whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occurs on Earth between January 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET) and June 1, 2022 (12:00:00 AM ET), as measured by the U.S. Geological Survey. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source lists 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher anywhere on earth for that period. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake hazards program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). To access the data, one must choose the earthquake they are looking for from the list then open its individual page, then open its “Origin” detailed data. The URLs of such pages are usually formatted as follows: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/%5B_CATALOGNUMBER_%5D/origin/detail

Specifically, the number next to the magnitude (regardless of the uncertainty level and of the scale used) and the origin time at the “Origin” page of each earthquake in question will be used.

Please note, only earthquakes with “REVIEWED” origin status will be considered. The last data check will be done on June 7th, 2022, 12:00:00 AM ET.


Will an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or above occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022?

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