This is a scalar market on the number of confirmed coronavirus cases there will be at the end of 2020 in the United States, according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html. The lower bound for this market is 9 million and the upper bound is 15 million - you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short share price corresponds with number of confirmed cases. The market will be settled according to https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html at roughly 12am EST on January 1st, 2021. Long and Short shares will settle proportional to the final value, in the case of the final value being between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Share is capped at $1. Refer to calculator. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).

The spread of the coronavirus in the United States in recent weeks has been worse than it seems, not because of how it has been spreading but where. The virus has been pummeling some of the least populous states in the country, but the relatively low numbers can be deceptive. The surges in rural areas have been just as severe as the spikes in densely populated cities in the Sun Belt over the summer.

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As Virus Hits Rural U.S., Numbers May Be Small, but the Impact Is Not

The United States is “facing a whole lot of trouble” as coronavirus cases continue to surge across the country heading into the cold winter months, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, told CNBC on Monday. 



How many confirmed Coronavirus cases will there be at EOY in the USA?
(Range: 9M - 15M)

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As Virus Hits Rural U.S., Numbers May Be Small, but the Impact Is Not

Dr. Fauci says U.S. faces ‘a whole lot of trouble’ as coronavirus cases rise heading into winter