This is a market group on when the next U.S. recession (defined as a negative change in quarterly U.S. real GDP) will occur.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

This market will resolve as soon as the data for Q4 2021 are released, scheduled for January 27 2022, 8:30 AM ET.
Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data 
might be revisioned during the following quarter in the next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

By Q4 2021?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied, or when the data for Q1 2022 is released.
Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

By Q1 2022?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q2 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q2 2022 is released.

Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

By Q2 2022?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q3 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q3 2022 is released.

Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

By Q3 2022?

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 in at least one quarter between Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
This market will resolve as soon as the conditions above are satisfied for any of the quarters in the range, or when the data for Q4 2022 is released.

Please note, that the data in the earliest Gross Domestic Produce report is labelled by BEA as “Advance Estimate” and will be considered to resolve this market. The data might be revisioned during the following quarter in next estimates however, any revisions to the data made after the release of the Advance Estimate will not be considered for this market.

When will the next recession happen in the US?

Choose a market:

By Q4 2021?

Vol: $1,648

Liq: $50

By Q1 2022?

Vol: $15,605

Liq: $300

By Q2 2022?

Vol: $22,175

Liq: $501

By Q3 2022?

Vol: $40,480

Liq: $18

By Q4 2022?

Vol: $27,035

Liq: $323

About this market group