This is a market group on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will set the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after their monthly meetings.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for June 14-15 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 1.00% following the Federal Reserve's June 2022 meeting, otherwise - it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by June 22, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET then this market will resolve 50-50.

Above 1% after June meeting? (25 bips or more)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for May 3-4 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 0.75% following the Federal Reserve's May 2022 meeting, otherwise - it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by May 11, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET then this market will resolve 50-50.


Above 0.75% After May Meeting

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for June 14-15 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 1.50% following the Federal Reserve's June 2022 meeting, otherwise - it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by June 22, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET then this market will resolve 50-50.

Above 1.50% after June meeting? (75 bips or more)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for July 26-27 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 2.00% following the Federal Reserve's July 2022 meeting, otherwise - it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by August 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET then this market will resolve 50-50.

Above 2.00% after July meeting? (50 bps or more)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for July 26-27 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 2.25% following the Federal Reserve's July 2022 meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market will resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by August 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve 50-50.

Above 2.25% after July meeting? (75 bps or more)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for March 15-16 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the upper bound of target federal funds rate will be set above 0.5% following the Federal Reserve's March meeting, otherwise - it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by March 22, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET then this market will resolve 50-50.

> 0.5% after March meeting?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for July 26-27 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate will be set above 2.50% following the Federal Reserve's July 2022 meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also being published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market will resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued.

If after the conclusion of the scheduled meeting no statement is released by August 3, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market will resolve 50-50.

Above 2.50% after July meeting? (100 bps or more)

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for September 20-21 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. After the July 2022 meeting, the upper bound of the federal funds rate was set to 2.50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is set to exactly 2.75% (an increase of 25 basis points from the previous level) following the Federal Reserve's September 2022 meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued.

If no statement is released by September 28, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

25 bps increase after September meeting? 

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for September 20-21 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. After the July 2022 meeting, the upper bound of the federal funds rate was set to 2.50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is set to exactly 3.00% (an increase of 50 basis points from the previous level) following the Federal Reserve's September 2022 meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued.

If no statement is released by September 28, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

50 bps increase after September meeting? 

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for September 20-21 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. After the July 2022 meeting, the upper bound of the federal funds rate was set to 2.50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is set to exactly 3.25% (an increase of 75 basis points from the previous level) following the Federal Reserve's September 2022 meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued.

If no statement is released by September 28, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

75 bps increase after September meeting? 

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the meeting scheduled for September 20-21 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. After the July 2022 meeting, the upper bound of the federal funds rate was set to 2.50%.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is set to exactly 3.50% (an increase of 100 basis points from the previous level) following the Federal Reserve's September 2022 meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market resolves as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued.

If no statement is released by September 28, 2022, 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

Fed Interest Rates

Choose a market:

25 bps increase after September meeting?

Vol: $697

Liq: $33

50 bps increase after September meeting?

Vol: $20,462

Liq: $2,005

75 bps increase after September meeting?

Vol: $40,877

Liq: $7,699

100 bps increase after September meeting?

Vol: $2,759

Liq: $385

About this market group