Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone launches underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting from May 2026 confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a new foldable device, are slated for a September launch, preserving the core “18” branding even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027. This split-release strategy aligns with Apple’s historical September timing for premium hardware and reflects deliberate supply-chain and revenue-management decisions rather than any full-year skip. While major production disruptions or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, Apple’s track record and current development timelines make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$111,252 거래량
$111,252 거래량
2026.12.31
$111,252 거래량
$111,252 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone launches underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting from May 2026 confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a new foldable device, are slated for a September launch, preserving the core “18” branding even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027. This split-release strategy aligns with Apple’s historical September timing for premium hardware and reflects deliberate supply-chain and revenue-management decisions rather than any full-year skip. While major production disruptions or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, Apple’s track record and current development timelines make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
거래량
$111,252종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone launches underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting from May 2026 confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a new foldable device, are slated for a September launch, preserving the core “18” branding even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027. This split-release strategy aligns with Apple’s historical September timing for premium hardware and reflects deliberate supply-chain and revenue-management decisions rather than any full-year skip. While major production disruptions or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, Apple’s track record and current development timelines make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$111,252종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual cadence of flagship smartphone launches underpins the 96% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent reporting from May 2026 confirms that iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models, along with a new foldable device, are slated for a September launch, preserving the core “18” branding even as the standard iPhone 18 shifts to spring 2027. This split-release strategy aligns with Apple’s historical September timing for premium hardware and reflects deliberate supply-chain and revenue-management decisions rather than any full-year skip. While major production disruptions or regulatory hurdles remain theoretically possible, Apple’s track record and current development timelines make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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