Ongoing DOJ reviews of former intelligence officials, including referrals tied to declassified 2016 Russia-related documents, underpin trader positioning on the market, with John Brennan priced highest near 61 percent amid speculation over potential charges. Parallel scrutiny of diplomats and political figures, alongside immigration enforcement actions resulting in recent detentions of local officials, sustains lower probabilities for outcomes like John Kerry at 42 percent and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at 32 percent. International proceedings, such as those involving South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, register minimal movement at around 11 percent. No indictments have materialized to date, though confirmation hearings, special counsel updates, and executive actions through late 2026 remain key variables that could alter implied probabilities before resolution on January 1, 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$109,886 거래량
Lisa Cook
56%
John Brennan
52%
John Kerry
41%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
34%
Mahmoud Khalil
33%
Letitia James
26%
James Clapper
20%
Brandon Johnson
22%
James Comey
17%
Tom Homan
16%
Lee Jun-seok
14%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Anthony Fauci
9%
Adam Schiff
8%
Kash Patel
7%
Candace Owens
7%
Hillary Clinton
7%
Barack Obama
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
24%
Susan Rice
6%
Gavin Newsom
6%
Bill Clinton
5%
Pam Bondi
5%
Joe Biden
3%
$109,886 거래량
Lisa Cook
$363 거래량
56%
John Brennan
$6,587 거래량
52%
John Kerry
$73 거래량
41%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,364 거래량
34%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,168 거래량
33%
Letitia James
$1,330 거래량
26%
James Clapper
$2,503 거래량
20%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 거래량
22%
James Comey
$9,214 거래량
17%
Tom Homan
$27,836 거래량
16%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 거래량
14%
Loretta Lynch
$427 거래량
11%
Anthony Fauci
$6,389 거래량
9%
Adam Schiff
$6,291 거래량
8%
Kash Patel
$153 거래량
7%
Candace Owens
$257 거래량
7%
Hillary Clinton
$13,996 거래량
7%
Barack Obama
$1,067 거래량
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$255 거래량
24%
Susan Rice
$212 거래량
6%
Gavin Newsom
$18,671 거래량
6%
Bill Clinton
$332 거래량
5%
Pam Bondi
$1,539 거래량
5%
Joe Biden
$1,417 거래량
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing DOJ reviews of former intelligence officials, including referrals tied to declassified 2016 Russia-related documents, underpin trader positioning on the market, with John Brennan priced highest near 61 percent amid speculation over potential charges. Parallel scrutiny of diplomats and political figures, alongside immigration enforcement actions resulting in recent detentions of local officials, sustains lower probabilities for outcomes like John Kerry at 42 percent and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at 32 percent. International proceedings, such as those involving South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, register minimal movement at around 11 percent. No indictments have materialized to date, though confirmation hearings, special counsel updates, and executive actions through late 2026 remain key variables that could alter implied probabilities before resolution on January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
거래량
$109,886마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing DOJ reviews of former intelligence officials, including referrals tied to declassified 2016 Russia-related documents, underpin trader positioning on the market, with John Brennan priced highest near 61 percent amid speculation over potential charges. Parallel scrutiny of diplomats and political figures, alongside immigration enforcement actions resulting in recent detentions of local officials, sustains lower probabilities for outcomes like John Kerry at 42 percent and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at 32 percent. International proceedings, such as those involving South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, register minimal movement at around 11 percent. No indictments have materialized to date, though confirmation hearings, special counsel updates, and executive actions through late 2026 remain key variables that could alter implied probabilities before resolution on January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$109,886마켓 개설일
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing DOJ reviews of former intelligence officials, including referrals tied to declassified 2016 Russia-related documents, underpin trader positioning on the market, with John Brennan priced highest near 61 percent amid speculation over potential charges. Parallel scrutiny of diplomats and political figures, alongside immigration enforcement actions resulting in recent detentions of local officials, sustains lower probabilities for outcomes like John Kerry at 42 percent and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero at 32 percent. International proceedings, such as those involving South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, register minimal movement at around 11 percent. No indictments have materialized to date, though confirmation hearings, special counsel updates, and executive actions through late 2026 remain key variables that could alter implied probabilities before resolution on January 1, 2027.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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