FIFA has repeatedly affirmed that Iran will participate in the 2026 World Cup as scheduled, with the federation confirming the team's group-stage matches in the United States and approving a training base in Mexico amid travel and security arrangements. Iranian officials have signaled their intent to compete after earlier safety concerns tied to regional conflicts, while Italy's sports minister and Olympic committee president dismissed any replacement proposal as inappropriate and contrary to on-field qualification standards. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability for no replacement reflects these official positions and the absence of further disqualifications or withdrawals in recent weeks. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen late withdrawal by Iran or a FIFA rule change, though neither has materialized in the current environment.