Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, in a February 22 operation in Jalisco, heightening scrutiny on rival Sinaloa Cartel factions amid internal conflicts following prior arrests of Ismael Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López. No top-tier detentions of leaders like Los Chapitos—Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar—or others such as Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez have occurred yet in 2026, despite U.S. indictments for narcoterrorism and a fresh $10 million ICE bounty on Iván plus arrests of his family associates this month. January's extradition of dozens to the U.S. and pre-World Cup security pressures under President Sheinbaum signal rising bilateral momentum for captures before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트2026년에 체포될 카르텔 지도자는 누구입니까?
2026년에 체포될 카르텔 지도자는 누구입니까?
$75,312 거래량
2026.02.28
이반 아르치발도 구스만 살라자
45%
헤수스 알프레도 구즈만 살라사르
57%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
53%
아우디아스 플로레스-실바
28%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
39%
후안 카를로스 발렌시아 곤살레스
45%
후안 레예스 메히아 곤살레스
54%
후안 파블로 레데즈마
45%
$75,312 거래량
이반 아르치발도 구스만 살라자
$5,603 거래량
45%
헤수스 알프레도 구즈만 살라사르
$5,775 거래량
57%
Ricardo Ruiz Velasco
$0 거래량
53%
아우디아스 플로레스-실바
$0 거래량
28%
Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan
$4,795 거래량
39%
후안 카를로스 발렌시아 곤살레스
$58,491 거래량
45%
후안 레예스 메히아 곤살레스
$0 거래량
54%
후안 파블로 레데즈마
$647 거래량
45%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, in a February 22 operation in Jalisco, heightening scrutiny on rival Sinaloa Cartel factions amid internal conflicts following prior arrests of Ismael Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López. No top-tier detentions of leaders like Los Chapitos—Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar—or others such as Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez have occurred yet in 2026, despite U.S. indictments for narcoterrorism and a fresh $10 million ICE bounty on Iván plus arrests of his family associates this month. January's extradition of dozens to the U.S. and pre-World Cup security pressures under President Sheinbaum signal rising bilateral momentum for captures before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET
거래량
$75,312종료일
2026.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, in a February 22 operation in Jalisco, heightening scrutiny on rival Sinaloa Cartel factions amid internal conflicts following prior arrests of Ismael Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López. No top-tier detentions of leaders like Los Chapitos—Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar—or others such as Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez have occurred yet in 2026, despite U.S. indictments for narcoterrorism and a fresh $10 million ICE bounty on Iván plus arrests of his family associates this month. January's extradition of dozens to the U.S. and pre-World Cup security pressures under President Sheinbaum signal rising bilateral momentum for captures before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$75,312종료일
2026.02.28마켓 개설일
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mexican security forces killed CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias El Mencho, in a February 22 operation in Jalisco, heightening scrutiny on rival Sinaloa Cartel factions amid internal conflicts following prior arrests of Ismael Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López. No top-tier detentions of leaders like Los Chapitos—Iván Archivaldo and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar—or others such as Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez have occurred yet in 2026, despite U.S. indictments for narcoterrorism and a fresh $10 million ICE bounty on Iván plus arrests of his family associates this month. January's extradition of dozens to the U.S. and pre-World Cup security pressures under President Sheinbaum signal rising bilateral momentum for captures before year-end resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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