SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and its explicit targeting of a $1.75–2 trillion IPO valuation range—potentially raising $40–80 billion—directly anchors the 71% market-implied probability on the 1.75–2.00T outcome. Recent reports indicate the company has moderated its prior ambitions above $2 trillion to at least $1.8 trillion amid preparations for a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, reflecting realistic pricing after Q1 2026 net losses of $4.28 billion and integration of its February xAI merger. Trader consensus in prediction markets aligns with these filings and analyst estimates of the combined entity's revenue trajectory from Starlink and launch services, while the modest probabilities on higher and lower brackets capture residual uncertainty around final pricing, retail allocation, and pre-IPO market conditions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트1.75-2.00조 71%
2.00-2.25조 19%
1.50-1.75조 3.4%
2.25~2.50조 2.2%
$157,833 거래량
$157,833 거래량
1.25조 미만
1%
1.25-1.50조
1%
1.50-1.75조
6%
1.75-2.00조
71%
2.00-2.25조
19%
2.25~2.50조
2%
2.50조 달러 이상
2%
1.75-2.00조 71%
2.00-2.25조 19%
1.50-1.75조 3.4%
2.25~2.50조 2.2%
$157,833 거래량
$157,833 거래량
1.25조 미만
$63,202 거래량
1%
1.25-1.50조
$17,286 거래량
1%
1.50-1.75조
$11,108 거래량
6%
1.75-2.00조
$22,294 거래량
71%
2.00-2.25조
$16,080 거래량
19%
2.25~2.50조
$11,728 거래량
2%
2.50조 달러 이상
$16,135 거래량
2%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and its explicit targeting of a $1.75–2 trillion IPO valuation range—potentially raising $40–80 billion—directly anchors the 71% market-implied probability on the 1.75–2.00T outcome. Recent reports indicate the company has moderated its prior ambitions above $2 trillion to at least $1.8 trillion amid preparations for a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, reflecting realistic pricing after Q1 2026 net losses of $4.28 billion and integration of its February xAI merger. Trader consensus in prediction markets aligns with these filings and analyst estimates of the combined entity's revenue trajectory from Starlink and launch services, while the modest probabilities on higher and lower brackets capture residual uncertainty around final pricing, retail allocation, and pre-IPO market conditions.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
거래량
$157,833마켓 개설일
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and its explicit targeting of a $1.75–2 trillion IPO valuation range—potentially raising $40–80 billion—directly anchors the 71% market-implied probability on the 1.75–2.00T outcome. Recent reports indicate the company has moderated its prior ambitions above $2 trillion to at least $1.8 trillion amid preparations for a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, reflecting realistic pricing after Q1 2026 net losses of $4.28 billion and integration of its February xAI merger. Trader consensus in prediction markets aligns with these filings and analyst estimates of the combined entity's revenue trajectory from Starlink and launch services, while the modest probabilities on higher and lower brackets capture residual uncertainty around final pricing, retail allocation, and pre-IPO market conditions.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$157,833마켓 개설일
Mar 25, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on May 20, 2026, and its explicit targeting of a $1.75–2 trillion IPO valuation range—potentially raising $40–80 billion—directly anchors the 71% market-implied probability on the 1.75–2.00T outcome. Recent reports indicate the company has moderated its prior ambitions above $2 trillion to at least $1.8 trillion amid preparations for a June 2026 Nasdaq listing, reflecting realistic pricing after Q1 2026 net losses of $4.28 billion and integration of its February xAI merger. Trader consensus in prediction markets aligns with these filings and analyst estimates of the combined entity's revenue trajectory from Starlink and launch services, while the modest probabilities on higher and lower brackets capture residual uncertainty around final pricing, retail allocation, and pre-IPO market conditions.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문