The Virginia 11th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from nonpartisan forecasters, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after long-serving Democrat Gerry Connolly stepped aside for health reasons. Primary challengers including Bree Fram and Stella Pekarsky have emerged ahead of the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, yet the district’s northern Virginia suburban base and historical margins continue to limit Republican viability. Mid-decade redistricting remains under court review but has not materially altered the seat’s partisan balance. A late scandal, major national wave, or unexpected turnout shift would be required to meaningfully alter the implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$18,936 거래량
$18,936 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
95%
공화당
6%
$18,936 거래량
$18,936 거래량
2026.11.03
민주당
$12,234 거래량
95%
공화당
$6,702 거래량
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Virginia 11th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from nonpartisan forecasters, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after long-serving Democrat Gerry Connolly stepped aside for health reasons. Primary challengers including Bree Fram and Stella Pekarsky have emerged ahead of the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, yet the district’s northern Virginia suburban base and historical margins continue to limit Republican viability. Mid-decade redistricting remains under court review but has not materially altered the seat’s partisan balance. A late scandal, major national wave, or unexpected turnout shift would be required to meaningfully alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
거래량
$18,936종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Virginia 11th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from nonpartisan forecasters, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after long-serving Democrat Gerry Connolly stepped aside for health reasons. Primary challengers including Bree Fram and Stella Pekarsky have emerged ahead of the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, yet the district’s northern Virginia suburban base and historical margins continue to limit Republican viability. Mid-decade redistricting remains under court review but has not materially altered the seat’s partisan balance. A late scandal, major national wave, or unexpected turnout shift would be required to meaningfully alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$18,936종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Virginia 11th congressional district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings of Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic from nonpartisan forecasters, underpins the current trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent James Walkinshaw secured the seat in a September 2025 special election with roughly 75 percent of the vote after long-serving Democrat Gerry Connolly stepped aside for health reasons. Primary challengers including Bree Fram and Stella Pekarsky have emerged ahead of the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, yet the district’s northern Virginia suburban base and historical margins continue to limit Republican viability. Mid-decade redistricting remains under court review but has not materially altered the seat’s partisan balance. A late scandal, major national wave, or unexpected turnout shift would be required to meaningfully alter the implied probability.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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