The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
68%
Republican Party
24%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$287 거래량
68%
Republican Party
$516 거래량
24%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
거래량
$803종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$803종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic candidate holds a 70% implied probability in this Virginia 2nd District contest primarily because mid-decade redistricting shifted the seat toward even or slight Democratic lean after voters approved new maps in April 2026. Incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans faces a likely rematch against former Representative Elaine Luria, who secured a high-profile endorsement from Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger and benefits from the altered voter composition in Hampton Roads. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up or lean Democratic, reflecting the district’s changed partisan voter index and the competitive primary dynamics ahead of the August 4 contests. Traders price in these structural and candidate factors for the November 3 general election.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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